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Alcoa (AA) Stock Fundamentals, Analysis & Risk Signals

Health score, competitive moat, risk signals, and key metrics at a glance.

NYSE•Basic Materials•Aluminum
B
GoodMetricSide Score: 71/100
ProfitabilityProfit25/30
GrowthGrowth14/25
Balance SheetBalance23/25
Cash QualityCash9/20
Price & Volume
Market Cap $12.85B

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Moat Signals

Competitive analysis based on 39 quarters of fundamental data

Pricing Power

Weak Moat

Operating margins are under pressure, averaging 3.6%. The business may lack pricing power or face rising costs.'

Competitive Advantage

Weak Moat

ROE is low or negative, suggesting limited competitive advantage or capital allocation challenges.

Cash Generation

Weak Moat

Only 4 of the last 8 quarters had positive FCF — the business may require external capital to sustain operations.

Demand Durability

Moderate Moat

Revenue shows resilience with 5 of 7 quarters posting growth — demand is generally stable but has seen some soft patches.

Risk Signals

Data-driven red flags and warnings across 39 quarters

High Risk

Margin Pressure

Red Flag

Operating margins dropped 126.4% over recent quarters — a sharp decline suggesting serious cost or pricing challenges.

Earnings Quality

Red Flag

Free cash flow has been negative in 4 of the last 8 quarters — earnings are not translating to cash.

Leverage Risk

Healthy

D/E ratio is 0.4 — conservative capital structure with low financial risk.

Revenue Decline

Healthy

Revenue is stable or growing over recent quarters — demand appears durable.

Cash Burn

Watch

4 of the last 8 quarters had negative FCF — inconsistent cash generation raises sustainability concerns.

Share Dilution

Red Flag

Shares outstanding increased 46.7% — significant dilution, likely from stock compensation or capital raises.

Metrics at a Glance

as of March 2026

Revenue & Profit

Revenue, EBITDA, operating income, net income, EPS, and shares

TTM Revenue
$12.65B
0.1%
Q. Revenue
$3.19B
TTM EBITDA
$375.00M
80.4%
TTM Op. Income
$-262.00M
120.3%
Q. Op. Income
$373.00M
TTM Net Income
$1.03B
20.2%
Q. Net Income
$425.00M
EPS
$1.61
Shares Out.
$264.00M
1.9%
$12.65B in TTM revenue declined 0.1% YoY, reaching $3.19B last quarter. TTM EBITDA of $375.00M and TTM operating income of $-262.00M shows growth is flowing through. Net income of $1.03B TTM confirms the company is converting revenue into profit. Revenue is contracting — assess whether this is cyclical or structural.

Margins

Gross, EBITDA, operating, and net margin trends

Gross Margin
21.3%
22.8%
EBITDA Margin
16.8%
Op. Margin
11.7%
38.7%
Net Margin
13.3%
18.2%
Op. margin of 11.7% is down 7.4% YoY — costs are rising relative to revenue. Net margin at 13.3% and gross margin of 21.3% — earnings take a bigger bite when COGS stays lean..

Price Ratios

P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and earnings yield

P/E Ratio
12.4x
P/S Ratio
1.0x
P/B Ratio
1.9x
At 12.4x P/E, the stock trades below market averages — potentially undervalued. P/S of 1.0x and P/B of 1.9x provide additional context. Assess whether the current multiple is justified by the company's growth and profitability trajectory.

Assets & Liabilities

Total assets, cash, debt, book value, and leverage

Total Assets
$16.64B
Cash
$1.35B
Long-Term Debt
$2.44B
Book Value
$6.83B
D/E Ratio
0.4
Debt/EBITDA
4.6
With $16.64B in assets and $2.44B in long-term debt, the D/E of 0.4and book value of $6.83B — shows a conservative capital structure — the company has a strong financial cushion to weather downturns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow, free cash flow, FCF margin, and earnings quality

Op. Cash Flow
$-179.00M
Free Cash Flow
$-298.00M
1555.6%
FCF Margin
-2.4%
FCF / Net Income
-0.7
FCF of $-298.00M on $-179.00M in operating cash flow. The FCF / Net Income ratio of -0.3x shows cash consumption — the business is not yet self-funding.

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