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Assured Guaranty (AGO) Stock Fundamentals, Analysis & Risk Signals

Health score, competitive moat, risk signals, and key metrics at a glance.

NYSE•Financial Services•Insurance - Specialty
B
GoodMetricSide Score: 64/100
ProfitabilityProfit25/30
GrowthGrowth9/25
Balance SheetBalance13/25
Cash QualityCash17/20
Price & Volume
Market Cap $3.72B

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Moat Signals

Competitive analysis based on 61 quarters of fundamental data

Pricing Power

Moderate Moat

Operating margins are positive at ~51.4% on average, but show some variability — pricing power may be sensitive to market conditions.

Competitive Advantage

Moderate Moat

ROE is positive at ~9.0% on average, adequate but below the threshold typically associated with wide moats.

Cash Generation

Strong Moat

Free cash flow is consistently positive and growing — a hallmark of a capital-light business that can self-fund growth.

Demand Durability

Weak Moat

Revenue has been flat or declining over recent quarters, which may indicate eroding demand or competitive pressure.

Risk Signals

Data-driven red flags and warnings across 61 quarters

Low Risk

Margin Pressure

Watch

Operating margins declined 7.9% — watch for continued compression, which may signal competitive or cost pressure.

Earnings Quality

Watch

FCF/Net Income has dropped below 0.7x in 4 quarters — monitor for earnings quality deterioration.

Leverage Risk

Healthy

D/E ratio is 0.3 — conservative capital structure with low financial risk.

Revenue Decline

Healthy

Revenue is stable or growing over recent quarters — demand appears durable.

Cash Burn

Healthy

Free cash flow is consistently positive — the business self-funds without external capital reliance.

Share Dilution

Healthy

Shares decreased 17.0% — net buybacks are reducing shares outstanding and boosting per-share value.

Metrics at a Glance

as of March 2026

Revenue & Profit

Revenue, EBITDA, operating income, net income, EPS, and shares

TTM Revenue
$1.03B
5.6%
Q. Revenue
$261.00M
TTM EBITDA
$498.00M
13.1%
TTM Op. Income
$498.00M
13.1%
Q. Op. Income
$65.00M
TTM Net Income
$415.00M
6.3%
Q. Net Income
$88.00M
EPS
$1.94
Shares Out.
$44.90M
10.2%
$1.03B in TTM revenue grew 5.6% YoY, reaching $261.00M last quarter. TTM EBITDA of $498.00M and TTM operating income of $498.00M shows growth is flowing through. Net income of $415.00M TTM confirms the company is converting revenue into profit. Revenue is growing at a healthy pace — a signal to hold.

Margins

Gross, EBITDA, operating, and net margin trends

EBITDA Margin
24.9%
Op. Margin
24.9%
62.5%
Net Margin
33.7%
33.9%
Op. margin of 24.9% is down 41.5% YoY — costs are rising relative to revenue. Net margin at 33.7%.

Price Ratios

P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and earnings yield

P/E Ratio
9.0x
P/S Ratio
3.6x
P/B Ratio
0.7x
At 9.0x P/E, the stock trades below market averages — potentially undervalued. P/S of 3.6x and P/B of 0.7x provide additional context. Below-market P/E with growing revenue suggests a potential buying opportunity — the stock may be undervalued relative to its fundamentals.

Assets & Liabilities

Total assets, cash, debt, book value, and leverage

Total Assets
$12.63B
Cash
$333.00M
Long-Term Debt
$1.71B
Book Value
$5.54B
D/E Ratio
0.3
Debt/EBITDA
26.2
With $12.63B in assets and $1.71B in long-term debt, the D/E of 0.3and book value of $5.54B — shows a conservative capital structure — the company has a strong financial cushion to weather downturns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow, free cash flow, FCF margin, and earnings quality

Op. Cash Flow
$190.00M
TTM Free Cash Flow
$362.00M
74.0%
FCF Margin
35.3%
FCF / Net Income
0.9
TTM FCF of $362.00M on $190.00M in operating cash flow. The FCF / Net Income ratio of 0.9x means earnings are well backed by actual cash — high-quality earnings.

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