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Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Stock Fundamentals, Analysis & Risk Signals

Health score, competitive moat, risk signals, and key metrics at a glance.

NYSE•Consumer Cyclical•Packaging & Containers
B
GoodMetricSide Score: 60/100
ProfitabilityProfit20/30
GrowthGrowth12/25
Balance SheetBalance15/25
Cash QualityCash13/20
Price & Volume
Market Cap $21.10B

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

Moat Signals

Competitive analysis based on 63 quarters of fundamental data

Pricing Power

Moderate Moat

Operating margins are positive at ~12.8% on average, but show some variability — pricing power may be sensitive to market conditions.

Competitive Advantage

Strong Moat

Consistently high ROE averaging 18.0% suggests a durable competitive advantage and efficient capital allocation.

Cash Generation

Strong Moat

Free cash flow is consistently positive and growing — a hallmark of a capital-light business that can self-fund growth.

Demand Durability

Strong Moat

TTM revenue has grown consistently (7 of 7 quarters up), with ~16.2% growth over the period. Strong demand durability.

Risk Signals

Data-driven red flags and warnings across 63 quarters

Some Concerns

Margin Pressure

Watch

Operating margins declined 15.0% — watch for continued compression, which may signal competitive or cost pressure.

Earnings Quality

Watch

FCF/Net Income has dropped below 0.7x in 3 quarters — monitor for earnings quality deterioration.

Leverage Risk

Watch

Debt-to-equity has risen 57.3% recently — increasing financial risk even if the current ratio is manageable.

Revenue Decline

Healthy

Revenue is stable or growing over recent quarters — demand appears durable.

Cash Burn

Healthy

Free cash flow is consistently positive — the business self-funds without external capital reliance.

Share Dilution

Healthy

Share count is stable — no significant dilution or buyback activity.

Metrics at a Glance

as of March 2026

Revenue & Profit

Revenue, EBITDA, operating income, net income, EPS, and shares

TTM Revenue
$9.22B
7.9%
Q. Revenue
$2.37B
TTM EBITDA
$1.82B
5.6%
TTM Op. Income
$1.08B
9.1%
Q. Op. Income
$251.30M
TTM Net Income
$741.20M
14.0%
Q. Net Income
$170.90M
EPS
$1.92
Shares Out.
$88.60M
0.7%
$9.22B in TTM revenue grew 7.9% YoY, reaching $2.37B last quarter. TTM EBITDA of $1.82B and TTM operating income of $1.08B shows growth is flowing through. Net income of $741.20M TTM confirms the company is converting revenue into profit. Revenue is growing at a healthy pace — a signal to hold.

Margins

Gross, EBITDA, operating, and net margin trends

Gross Margin
19.1%
9.9%
EBITDA Margin
20.1%
Op. Margin
10.6%
18.9%
Net Margin
7.2%
24.2%
Op. margin of 10.6% is down 2.5% YoY — costs are rising relative to revenue. Net margin at 7.2% and gross margin of 19.1% — earnings take a bigger bite when COGS stays lean..

Price Ratios

P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and earnings yield

P/E Ratio
28.5x
P/S Ratio
2.3x
P/B Ratio
4.6x
At 28.5x P/E, the stock trades in line with market averages — fairly valued. P/S of 2.3x and P/B of 4.6x provide additional context. Assess whether the current multiple is justified by the company's growth and profitability trajectory.

Assets & Liabilities

Total assets, cash, debt, book value, and leverage

Total Assets
$10.78B
Cash
$397.10M
Long-Term Debt
$3.97B
Book Value
$4.59B
D/E Ratio
0.9
Debt/EBITDA
8.3
With $10.78B in assets and $3.97B in long-term debt, the D/E of 0.9and book value of $4.59B — shows a conservative capital structure — the company has a strong financial cushion to weather downturns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow, free cash flow, FCF margin, and earnings quality

Op. Cash Flow
$329.30M
Free Cash Flow
$164.60M
13.8%
FCF Margin
1.8%
FCF / Net Income
1.0
FCF of $164.60M on $329.30M in operating cash flow. The FCF / Net Income ratio of 0.2x indicates partial cash conversion — earnings quality needs attention.

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