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Vistra (VST) Stock Fundamentals, Analysis & Risk Signals

Health score, competitive moat, risk signals, and key metrics at a glance.

NYSE•Utilities•Utilities - Independent Power Producers
B
GoodMetricSide Score: 62/100
ProfitabilityProfit30/30
GrowthGrowth9/25
Balance SheetBalance11/25
Cash QualityCash12/20
Price & Volume
Market Cap $51.03B

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Moat Signals

Competitive analysis based on 33 quarters of fundamental data

Pricing Power

Weak Moat

Operating margins are under pressure, averaging 18.2%. The business may lack pricing power or face rising costs.'

Competitive Advantage

Moderate Moat

ROE averages 34.6% but has fluctuated — the competitive advantage may be cyclical or emerging.

Cash Generation

Moderate Moat

6 of the last 8 quarters generated positive FCF. The company generally funds itself but has occasional cash consumption quarters.

Demand Durability

Strong Moat

TTM revenue has grown consistently (6 of 7 quarters up), with ~35.0% growth over the period. Strong demand durability.

Risk Signals

Data-driven red flags and warnings across 33 quarters

Some Concerns

Margin Pressure

Watch

Operating margins declined 5.3% — watch for continued compression, which may signal competitive or cost pressure.

Earnings Quality

Watch

FCF/Net Income has dropped below 0.7x in 4 quarters — monitor for earnings quality deterioration.

Leverage Risk

Red Flag

D/E ratio is 3.4 — dangerously high. The company is heavily leveraged and vulnerable to rising rates or cash flow dips.

Revenue Decline

Healthy

Revenue is stable or growing over recent quarters — demand appears durable.

Cash Burn

Watch

FCF turned negative in 2 of the last 8 quarters — occasional cash consumption.

Share Dilution

Healthy

Shares decreased 2.7% — net buybacks are reducing shares outstanding and boosting per-share value.

Metrics at a Glance

as of March 2026

Revenue & Profit

Revenue, EBITDA, operating income, net income, EPS, and shares

TTM Revenue
$19.13B
4.4%
Q. Revenue
$5.64B
TTM EBITDA
$5.47B
6.2%
TTM Op. Income
$3.52B
9.0%
Q. Op. Income
$1.50B
TTM Net Income
$2.24B
7.6%
Q. Net Income
$1.03B
EPS
$2.9
Shares Out.
$337.82M
0.6%
$19.13B in TTM revenue grew 4.4% YoY, reaching $5.64B last quarter. TTM EBITDA of $5.47B and TTM operating income of $3.52B shows growth is flowing through. Net income of $2.24B TTM confirms the company is converting revenue into profit. Revenue is growing modestly — monitor for acceleration or deceleration.

Margins

Gross, EBITDA, operating, and net margin trends

EBITDA Margin
35.2%
Op. Margin
26.6%
1041.3%
Net Margin
18.2%
389.3%
Op. margin of 26.6% is up 29.4% YoY — cost efficiency is improving. Net margin at 18.2%.

Price Ratios

P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and earnings yield

P/E Ratio
22.8x
P/S Ratio
2.7x
P/B Ratio
9.1x
At 22.8x P/E, the stock trades in line with market averages — fairly valued. P/S of 2.7x and P/B of 9.1x provide additional context. Assess whether the current multiple is justified by the company's growth and profitability trajectory.

Assets & Liabilities

Total assets, cash, debt, book value, and leverage

Total Assets
$41.31B
Cash
$634.00M
Long-Term Debt
$19.16B
Book Value
$5.60B
D/E Ratio
3.4
Debt/EBITDA
9.7
With $41.31B in assets and $19.16B in long-term debt, the D/E of 3.4and book value of $5.60B — indicates elevated leverage — the company has significant financial risk and may struggle in a downturn.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow, free cash flow, FCF margin, and earnings quality

Op. Cash Flow
$1.20B
Free Cash Flow
$316.00M
287.0%
FCF Margin
1.7%
FCF / Net Income
0.3
FCF of $316.00M on $1.20B in operating cash flow. The FCF / Net Income ratio of 0.1x indicates partial cash conversion — earnings quality needs attention.

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